Wednesday: Hili dialogue

May 14, 2024

Welcome to a Hump Day ( “Skofdag” in Afrikaans): Wednesday, August 2, 2023, and National Ice Cream Sandwich Day. Here’s the best one according to the NYT’s survey (click to go to the Amazon site, but it looks like you can get them at Whole Paycheck):

It’s also Dinosaurs Day, National Coloring Book Day, and Roma Holocaust Memorial Day (Council of Europe, European Parliament)

Readers are welcome to mark notable events, births, or deaths on this by consulting the August 2 Wikipedia page.

Da Nooz:

*We discussed Trump’s indictment yesterday afternoon, but if you want to read more, go here or here. The WaPo says the case “could take months, or even years, to be resolved.” YEARS????

There are six unnamed (yet) co-conspirators. Can you guess who they are? From the NYT

The indictment, filed by the special counsel Jack Smith in Federal District Court in Washington, accuses Mr. Trump of three conspiracies: one to defraud the United States; a second to obstruct an official government proceeding, the certification of the Electoral College vote; and a third to deprive people of a civil right, the right to have their votes counted. Mr. Trump was also charged with a fourth count of obstructing or attempting to obstruct an official proceeding.

“Each of these conspiracies — which built on the widespread mistrust the defendant was creating through pervasive and destabilizing lies about election fraud — targeted a bedrock function of the United States federal government: the nation’s process of collecting, counting and certifying the results of the presidential election,” the indictment said.

*The other day I discussed a NYT/Siena poll showing rankings of all the Republican candidates for President, with Trump way ahead of #2, Ron DeSantis, and everyone else in single digits. Now there’s a poll by the same organization showing that Biden is, right now, polling neck and neck with the odious and triply-indicted Trumpster.

Mr. Biden appears to have escaped the political danger zone he resided in last year, when nearly two-thirds of his party wanted a different nominee. Now, Democrats have broadly accepted him as their standard-bearer, even if half would prefer someone else.

Still, warning signs abound for the president: Despite his improved standing and a friendlier national environment, Mr. Biden remains broadly unpopular among a voting public that is pessimistic about the country’s future, and his approval rating is a mere 39 percent.

Perhaps most worryingly for Democrats, the poll found Mr. Biden in a neck-and-neck race with former President Donald J. Trump, who held a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters even as he faces two criminal indictments and more potential charges on the horizon. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were tied at 43 percent apiece in a hypothetical rematch in 2024, according to the poll.

Mr. Biden has been buoyed by voters’ feelings of fear and distaste toward Mr. Trump. Well over a year before the election, 16 percent of those polled had unfavorable views of both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, a segment with which Mr. Biden had a narrow lead.

. . .To borrow an old political cliché, the poll shows that Mr. Biden’s support among Democrats is a mile wide and an inch deep. About 30 percent of voters who said they planned to vote for Mr. Biden in November 2024 said they hoped Democrats would nominate someone else. Just 20 percent of Democrats said they would be enthusiastic if Mr. Biden were the party’s 2024 presidential nominee; another 51 percent said they would be satisfied but not enthusiastic.

A higher share of Democrats, 26 percent, expressed enthusiasm for the notion of Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee in 2024.

Well, she’ll be the nominee (Biden is too nice to nominate another VP, but Harris has been a washout since she took office. Remember how she was going to fix immigation?

Mr. Biden had the backing of 64 percent of Democrats who planned to participate in their party’s primary, an indicator of soft support for an incumbent president. Thirteen percent preferred Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 10 percent chose Marianne Williamson.

Neck and neck, and Trump’s indictments continue to increase. Why on earth would we expect his ratings to fall. Perhaps a conviction would do it?

*And yet, at the Washington Post, political columnist Henry Olsen has an op-ed saying the opposite: “Admit it, GOP. Trump’s legal woes make him an unviable candidate.” Whaaat? Well, here’s what Olsen thinks. First, there’s the money issue:

The revelation that Donald Trump’s political action committee spent more than $40 million on legal fees in the first half of 2023 does more than cast doubt on the former president’s ability to run a competitive primary campaign. It provides yet another reason why Republican voters should reject his candidacy if he does not drop out first.

This is especially true when running against an incumbent who can count on a united party for support. President Biden, along with the national Democratic Party and its state counterparts, will raise billions of dollars to crush whoever rises as his opponent. In 2020, Biden’s campaign and affiliated outside groups spent $1.6 billion while the Democratic National Committee and state and local parties spent another $1 billion. A cash-strapped candidate would not stand a chance against this onslaught.

Umm. . . Trump is particularly stumping hard, and he’s not even going to participate in the first debate of GOP candidates. I don’t think money will be his problem. And if he doesn’t need to show up to be elected, why would he worry about this next factor?

Running for president requires more than charisma and a few rallies. It requires time and money — and lots of it. Candidates must constantly be on the road stumping for votes. They also need support from the modern apparatus that places digital and television ads and identifies persuadable voters that can cast ballots for them.

This is especially true when running against an incumbent who can count on a united party for support.

Then there’s the time factor. Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that prosecutors are filing bogus charges to wound Trump politically. He might be able to beat all of those raps, either at trial or on appeal. But he would still have to manage his defense in at least two, and perhaps as many as four, major criminal cases. He has prodigious energy, especially for a 77-year-old man. But even he can’t be in five places at the same time.

I think Olsen is telling Post readers what they want to hear, not what is likely to happen. As Trump infamously said, he could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and it wouldn’t hurt his election chances. I despise the man and hope with every fiber of my being that he doesn’t get re-elected, but one has to be realistic as well.

*The Wall Street Journal‘s answer to the issue of “Why America’s gun laws are in chaos” comes down to two issues: political preference, of course, but also history.

The Supreme Court last summer sought to clarify its expansive reading of the Second Amendment. Instead, it set off chaos.

The decision in New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen decreed that gun-control laws of today must have a clear forerunner in weapons regulations around the time of the nation’s infancy, regardless of the modern public-safety rationale behind them.

The result: Hundreds of gun cases litigated in recent months have become a free-for-all, with lower courts conflicted or confounded about how and where to draw limits on gun rights.

“There’s all this picking and choosing of historical evidence. ‘This is too early. This is too late. Too small, too big,’” Judge Gerard Lynch of the Second U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals said during a recent argument about a new law in New York that prohibits guns in sensitive places like parks, museums and bars. “The whole thing puzzles me.”

In that case, the right of licensed handgun owners to carry weapons into bars and theaters could hinge on 19th-century statutes that barred drunks from carrying firearms, and outlawed guns and butcher knives in social parties attended by ladies. A case decided last fall held that the federal ban on guns with obliterated serial numbers was unconstitutional because unmarked guns were perfectly legal in the 18th century.

. . . That practice watered down gun rights, the opinion said. Instead, Thomas wrote, to pass constitutional muster, gun restrictions within the scope of the Second Amendment must be deeply rooted in historical precedent. Governments defending them bear the burden of showing that their laws are similar, or at least analogous, to firearm regulations widely enforced around the time of Second Amendment’s ratification in 1791.

This is taking “originalism” way too far. And yet it’s spawned a new class of paid experts:

The case has given firearms historians new roles as key witnesses. California and other pro-gun-control states have assembled a roster of gun historians—compensating some at a rate of $500 an hour—to scavenge databases and newspaper archives for historic gun laws and render their opinion on them.

Well, you can examine the Constitution under an electron microscope, but you will find nothing there (nor anything in early history) about selling guns to people who are under protection orders for domestic abuse. It’s what the Germans call Wahnsinn.

*Did you know that a U.S. government ban on the manufacture and sale of incandescent light bulbs (an energy-saving measure) started yesterday? No, you’re not violating the law if you still have them, but you won’t be able to buy them.

The rule passed by President Joe Biden’s Department of Energy in April 2022 states that light bulbs must emit a minimum of 45 lumens per watt. A lumen is a measure of brightness.

That effectively outlaws the manufacture and sale of common incandescent bulbs, the kind you screw into the vast majority of light sockets in your home. That’s because traditional incandescent bulbs provide just 15 lumens per watt, according to light bulb manufacturer Philips.

By contrast, most LED bulbs will get you 75 lumens per watt, or more.

Here’s what’s not banned:

Not all incandescent light bulbs are banned as part of the new rule, according to the Department of Energy. Here’s what manufacturers can still build and stores can continue selling:

Appliance lamps, including fridge and oven lights

Black lights

Bug lamps

Colored lamps

Infrared lamps

Left-handed thread lamps

Plant lights

Flood lights

Reflector lamps

Showcase lamps

Traffic signals

Some other specialty lights, including marine lamps and some odd-sized bulbs

And what’s next: CFL bulbs, some of which I bought to save energy!

Next on the banned list: compact fluorescent light bulbs.

In December 2022, the Department of Energy proposed a rule that would more than double the current minimum light bulb efficiency level, to over 120 lumens per watt for the most common bulbs. That would go into effect by the end of 2024 and effectively ban CFL bulbs.

*Finally an anti-“affirmative care” bill in Louisiana, presumed to be dead, has risen like Lazarus and is likely to become law in that state.

A controversial bill — that at one point had been presumed dead — banning gender-affirming medical care for transgender youths in Louisiana was passed by the Senate on Monday and is likely to reach the governor’s desk in the coming days.

The bill, which passed in the Senate mainly along party lines, 29-10, would prohibit hormone treatments, gender-affirming surgery and puberty-blocking drugs for transgender minors in Louisiana. The measure will go back to the House, which has already overwhelmingly passed the legislation, to approve of minor amendments, including pushing back the effective date of the law to Jan. 1, 2024.

If the House concurs, the legislation would be sent to the desk of Gov. John Bel Edwards, a Democrat who opposes it. Edwards has not said whether he would veto the bill. If he does, lawmakers could convene a veto session to try to override his decision. Last session, Edwards chose not to block a law banning transgender athletes from participating in women and girls sports competitions in Louisiana, although he successfully vetoed a similar measure the year before.

. . .Opponents of the ban, argue that gender-affirming care, which is supported by every major medical organization, can be lifesaving for someone with gender dysphoria, which is distress over gender identity that doesn’t match a person’s assigned sex. Advocates for the LGBTQ+ community fear that without the care, transgender children could face especially heightened risks of stress, depression and suicidal thoughts.

“When people, especially our youth, talk about suicide, that’s not something that you take lightly,” said Sen. Gerald Boudreaux, a Democrat opposing the bill “You wait too long and you are at the funeral home.”

Proponents of the legislation argue that the proposed ban would protect children from life-altering medical procedures until they are mature enough to make such serious decisions.

I have to say that in light of the paucity of evidence about the long-term effects of puberty blockers (which are considered only for clinical trials in some European countries, and that the light doesn’t mandate any specific kind of psychotherapy, and finally because there’s no evidence that preventing young people from transitioning really does lead to suicide, I don’t find this law unseemly. Sure, lots of real transphobes and Republicans are dancing in glee, but in this case the scientific data tells me that we need to know more before we start allowing this brand of “affirmative care.”

Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, Hili has become interested in AI:

And here’s an old post from this day in 2016 when I was visiting and carried Hili inside from the windowsill. Andrzej put it up on his website.

In Polish:

From Pyers:

From Divy, a famous Far Side cartoon by Gary Larson:

From Beth:

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From Masih: Not only no hijab, but flipping the bird by a police car! No wonder her face is blurred out.

This is the response of Iranian women to the Morality Police.#WomanLifeFreedom pic.twitter.com/lyBPamwxPu

— Masih Alinejad 🏳️ (@AlinejadMasih) August 1, 2023

Ricky Gervais astounds his cat Pickle:

Just told her there are as many even numbers as there are even and odd numbers added together. pic.twitter.com/JvOP9OBpdN

— Ricky Gervais (@rickygervais) August 1, 2023

From Jez; this is what a tiny (and ravenous) Galapagos tortoise looks like:

Tiny Tim, the playful miniature 78g tortoise known for eating a strawberry larger than himself, celebrated his first birthday yesterday with giant Galapagos cousins Hugo, and Estrella, 183kg and 55kg, at a NSW Reptile Park. pic.twitter.com/NLPULuCSYd

— James Drake (@jamesjpdrake) July 31, 2023

From Barry, and you’d better know the answer to this one!

Wait, hold on.

Is Darwin ADMITTING that evolution is a lie, making evolution the most successful lie ever told, or is “Darwin admitted evolution is a lie” the most successful lie ever told?

My job is hard sometimes. pic.twitter.com/tm0nT3yTq6

— Take That Darwin (@TakeThatDarwin) July 31, 2023

From the Auschwitz Memorial, a mass gassing of the Roma. 4300 killed in two days:

2/3 August 1944 | The Germans liquidated the so-called Gypsy camp (Zigeunerlager – sector BIIe) of Auschwitz II-Birkenau. Some 4,200-4,300 children, women and men – the last Roma prisoners of the sector – were murdered in gas chambers. https://t.co/4oNbsPuWdU pic.twitter.com/vkzE3Cfofh

— Auschwitz Memorial (@AuschwitzMuseum) August 2, 2023

From the visually unimpaired Dr. Cobb. Here’s the Google translation for the first one:

A lynx crossing a river on thin ice. He hears “cracking” sounds and decides to jump.

Una Lince che attraversa un fiume su ghiaccio sottile. Sente i suoni di "cracking" e decide di saltare. pic.twitter.com/NGCI5AiEeq

— ANTONIO (@blusewillis2) July 31, 2023

Read what happened to the first “spy cat,” whose development cost over $10 million:

Anyone who's had a cat knows that training one is like, well, herding cats. So why did the CIA train one to be a spy? https://t.co/S4g7IIWv5W

— Boundary Stones (@BoundaryStones) July 30, 2023

Nara is famous for its sika deer, whom are well protected by the locals. And the deer clearly aren’t stupid!

Meanwhile during a downpour in the Japanese city of Nara.. 😊 pic.twitter.com/uOMH34Jxny

— Buitengebieden (@buitengebieden) July 29, 2023